Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 30.159864 33.089817 36.403724 40.481554 45.440518 51.382382 59.216954
2025-10-05 27.182135 31.205113 36.163384 42.930956 52.303956 65.519806 87.179993
2025-10-12 24.521842 28.831930 34.398315 42.468226 54.603063 73.793118 111.421645
2025-10-19 22.906201 27.454929 33.559399 42.879823 57.987180 84.769822 149.380147
2025-10-26 21.942375 26.768383 33.481939 44.263117 63.146976 101.252317 223.264904
2025-11-02 20.841195 25.748258 32.755119 44.442837 66.212646 115.371430 329.693066
2025-11-09 19.498300 24.257324 31.152201 42.904535 65.604572 120.648755 426.369226
2025-11-16 18.334152 22.932473 29.670516 41.354158 64.597920 124.497514 551.956249
2025-11-23 17.846218 22.548547 29.587934 42.203191 68.817433 146.919191 1382.743174
2025-11-30 17.210131 21.895904 29.015154 42.074719 70.841680 164.552503 7123.497771
2025-12-07 16.558820 21.177589 28.274426 41.529485 71.746198 179.376479 NaN
2025-12-14 15.655509 20.031868 26.763170 39.356423 68.156815 171.636630 NaN
2025-12-21 14.971845 19.293270 26.043029 38.991200 70.101914 198.835153 NaN
2025-12-28 14.768867 19.292539 26.572588 41.256387 80.432189 313.320013 NaN
2026-01-04 14.166467 18.614499 25.866698 40.826949 82.776856 392.221820 NaN
2026-01-11 13.745976 18.193717 25.564376 41.210618 88.086834 582.999267 NaN
2026-01-18 13.486227 18.009948 25.659307 42.499253 97.662888 1313.775659 NaN
2026-01-25 13.105053 17.600690 25.301776 42.666510 103.199381 3765.162915 NaN
2026-02-01 12.563571 16.896818 24.343299 41.233673 101.053298 5888.599299 NaN
2026-02-08 12.059875 16.233858 23.421331 39.786844 98.351261 8879.609409 NaN
2026-02-15 11.852915 16.055548 23.397606 40.579514 106.955311 NaN NaN
2026-02-22 11.558965 15.715062 23.038015 40.459625 111.085745 NaN NaN
2026-03-01 11.243752 15.324145 22.554984 39.950600 112.891774 NaN NaN